Russias policy on the syria crisis has been a litmus test revealing the more general pattern of russian foreign policy thinking and behavior. Competition between washington and moscow for a say in any peace deal is increasing the danger of a. If moscow and washington can find a common position on the issue, russia may accept assads resignation, the article read. The deployment and use of russian air forces in syria could be a turningpoint for president bashar alassads regime. Second, russian material interests in bilateral relations with syria and its geopolitical interests in the regional. Sep 09, 2015 why russia is suddenly interested in syrias civil war. Syrian troops backed by russian airpower and special forces have been closing in on aleppo, syrias second largest city and a stronghold of the opposition to what most still call the government of syria. Does russia have any vital national interest attached to syria for which it is putting her international reputation at stake. Why russia is suddenly interested in syrias civil war the. Hezbollahs interests in syria hanin ghaddar, managing editor of now news lebanon and a former public policy at the wilson center, explained on july 25 why hezbollahs main interest in its involvement in syria is not to protect bashar alassad, but rather, iran. Putins middle east game changer satellite imagery provided by allsource analysis confirms the recent arrival of russian main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, helicopters, and other military equipment at an airbase in syrias coastal latakia province, indicating that russia has deployed troops inside syria. Finally, russias interests in syria are not the same as the interests of bashar assad and his government. Both the russian federation and the united states have strong interests at stake in syria,and these interests overlap in.
Syrias bashar alassad is russias only ally in the mediterranean. Dec, 2017 on november 22, the leaders of iran, russia, and turkey met in the russian resort town of sochi to discuss syrias future, and on november 28, the latest round of unsponsored talks between representatives of syrian president bashar alassad and the opposition began in geneva. As syria is the nexus of russias campaign to expand its regional. Even in the early 2000s, syria was producing a little more than 520,000 barrels of oil per day, which makes roughly 0. Framing the events in syria in this way also influenced how the russian lead ership interpreted the transformation of largely peaceful protests to a civil war. Russian and american interests in syria nuclear diner. Russia and syria oxford academic journals oxford university press. The four reasons russia wont give up syria, no matter what. Another round of talks in sochi is planned for early next year. As the war in syria grinds on into its third year, support among the american public for more robust u.
Jan 17, 2017 in syria, the assad baathist regime rejects the idea. Projecting russian military power can be a balm to a restive populace, one of the reasons behind russias syrian moves. There are small amounts of us aid entering into some oppositionheld districts in syria now, but even in these districts rebel factions squabble about how to use foreign monies and who should manage them. Russias economy interests behind its risky military move in. Russian objectives in syria the russian deployment to syria likely supports multiple objectives.
Jan 30, 2017 the meeting between iran, turkey, and russia in astana, kazakhstan on january 2324, in advance of the next round of u. For iran, syria is also an important and strategic gravity center of resistance against israel and the west in the region. Regime change in syria is still at least officially u. The syria crisis and the making of russias foreign policy. How to salvage us interests in syria fair observer. Why russia is suddenly interested in syrias civil war. Reestablishing a stable, unitary syrian state that secures american interests requires the u. Despite their alliance, russia has never had much influence over syrias policies. On november 22, the leaders of iran, russia, and turkey met in the russian resort town of sochi to discuss syrias future, and on november 28, the latest round of unsponsored talks between representatives of syrian president bashar alassad and the opposition began in geneva. As syrias war enters its endgame, the risk of a usrussia conflict escalates mary dejevsky. The meeting between iran, turkey, and russia in astana, kazakhstan on january 2324, in advance of the next round of u. Putins power play in syria how to respond to russias intervention angela stent a t the end of september, russia began conducting air strikes in syria, ostensibly to combat terrorist groups. By the way, syria is a multiethnic, multifaith and a fairly complex nation. Syrian crisis has turned into a battle of interests between the west and russia where who gains what matters a lot.
It enables russia to pursue the limited objective of securing its military interests on the syrian coast, where the port of tartus is russia s only remaining middle east base and where many dual russian syrian citizens live. Russias intervention in syria has introduced a dangerous new dynamic into an already volatile and complex conflict. But syria itself is not a major player on the global gas and oil market. Russian strategy in the middle east rand corporation. It may be useful to list probable russian and american interests in syrias ongoing civil war in what might be considered a realist analysis. A balance of ideals, interests in the usrussia talks on syrias chemical weapons, the two countries may clash over moscows interests and american ideals.
The effects of russian intervention in the syria crisis. Russias position on syria is very close to that of iran. If moscow wishes to avoid further regional unravelling and spiraling radicalisation, this is an investment worth making. Role in syrian conflict nprs robert siegel talks to vali nasr, dean of the school of advanced international studies at johns hopkins university, about russia.
Russia has spent political and real capital building alliances with syria and iran. Its unanticipated military foray into syria has transformed. Role in syrian conflict nprs robert siegel talks to vali nasr, dean of the school of advanced international. Why has russia adopted an approach opposed to western world in syria crisis.
Jun 21, 2017 as syrias war enters its endgame, the risk of a usrussia conflict escalates mary dejevsky. With such an extensive presence, russia will be able to obstruct the war efforts of those opposed to syrian president bashar al assad. The linked russian politicalmilitary initiative in syria with a. Its not surprising that moscow now wants to defend its allies interests at the bargaining table. The return of the russian bear to the middle east shay harzvi introduction. Since the start of the russian air strikes on 30 september. Jul 09, 2018 russia and the us have common interests in syria. Its operation plan, objectives, and consequences for the wests policies. As syrias war enters its endgame, the risk of a usrussia. That would require an additional, political outlay. The united states and its allies can still fly airstrikes against the islamic state, but the prospect of changing targets to include loyalist forces advancing on rebel positions is greatly hindered by active russian air support. Indicators of change might include troop movement or alteration in leader discourse.
Syria policy, distinguishing between russian interests. A balance of ideals, interests in the usrussia talks on syrias chemical weapons, the two countries may clash over moscows. Russian foreign policy since putin s return for a third term as president, in may 2012, russia has clearly adopted a more forceful approach in advancing its interests and goals in the international arena. Results of the reset in usrussian relations, russie. In syria, russia protects its interests from above. Israels interests in syria and in the yrian crisis are manifold. Russia also calculated that the fall of syrias regime could leave iran weakened and isolated, making it more vulnerable to an attack from either israel or the united states. Gas production in syria was also not that large on global scale. The four reasons russia wont give up syria, no matter what obama does. May 19, 2017 the turks have their interests in syria, the iranians have their interests in syria, saudis have their interests in syria, the israelis have their interests in syria, and then you zoom an even bigger step out and it seems like almost every western power in the world is somehow participating in bombing syria or attacking isis in some way.
Despite their alliance, russia has never had much influence over syria s policies. Oct 04, 2016 syrian troops backed by russian airpower and special forces have been closing in on aleppo, syrias second largest city and a stronghold of the opposition to what most still call the government of syria. Its up to the syrian people to decide who will be the head of syria. Syria future and the contradicting russianiranian interests january 4, 2017 mahmoud eskaf iran latest news, syria latest news what started as an alliance between russian and iran in syria was based on the mutual interests in supporting assad regime and prevent its fall. Cultural connections moscow has counted an assadled syria as its closest ally in the arab world for more than forty years. Meanwhile,the location of syria is in middle east and syria is the last prorussia one in middle east can influence the international oil price. Syria would then seem to be another setback in a domino effect that would next lead to iran and possibly continue towards russias southern rim. In pursuit of maintaining their interests in syria, moscow and tehran have adopted different. The largescale civilian killings perpetrated by assads regime have only reinforced the importance of his ouster. Power, prestige, and profit azuolas bagdonas1 abstract despite the crimes against humanity committed by bashar assads regime in syria and despite the growing international pressure, russia provided steadfast international.
Syria future and the contradicting russianiranian interests. The president has never formally revoked the goal he declared on aug. Nov 18, 2015 what does russia really want in syria. But washington should be under just as much scrutiny. In the russian mindset syria was thus a means of stonewalling western influence in southwest asia. Rather than advancing its selfproclaimed objective of fighting terrorism. Syrian crisis has turned into a battle of interests between the west. Russias policy on syria after the start of military engagement. Syria tests russias global role the national interest. Whats behind russias involvement in syria and iran. The strategic interests at play in us debate over syria al. Iraqi officials also demonstrated a strong interest to cooperate with russia in fighting with isis.
Common goals and interests of iran and russia in syria. The fall of libyan leader muammar qadhafi has also contributed to putins obstinacy on syria. There are over 2,000 radical islamists or terrorists born in russia mainly from north caucasus that are fighting in syria. Therefore, the fall of the incumbent syrian government in favor of a western government will, by no means, be beneficial to strategic interests of iran and russia. During the last month, russia held channels of communication wide open with egypt, jordan, turkey, kuwait, saudi arabia and israel. If aleppo falls, the last major urban area of syria will be back in the hands of the assad regime. Sep 05, 20 the four reasons russia wont give up syria, no matter what obama does. Russiaus relations and the end of syria geopolitical futures.
Syria as an increasingly important trading hub for chinese interests in the. Why russia is threatening the us in syria geopolitical futures. Russia is unlikely to change its position given that its interests in syria are not only military and strategic, but also commercial and cultural. What could change is how russia prioritizes its interests in the wake of the us election and change in administration. There are several reasons for russia to care about whats happening in syria, here are the most significant. Oct, 2015 it may be useful to list probable russian and american interests in syrias ongoing civil war in what might be considered a realist analysis. For russia, syria represents one of two pillars of its strategy in. The syria crisis and the making of russias foreign policy ponars eurasia policy memo no.
The deployment and use of russian air forces in syria could be a. Sep 07, 20 regime change in syria is still at least officially u. Ultimately, for moscow it is a matter of acquiring leverage to. Despite official washingtons annoyance, the russian involvement in syria could work in favor of u. The sense of fragility to russias south became magnified with the empowerment of sunni islamist. The strategic interests and objectives that one party seeks to achieve are contrary to the interests and objectives of the competing party. Syria as an increasingly important trading hub for chinese interests in the middle east and africa. And the collapse of ussr leads to russian current economic structurehighly rely on natural resource. And those reasons are so important to russias sense of its own national interests, not to mention its view of itself. The strikes constitute russias biggest intervention in the middle east in decades. Chinese economic interests in syria also contribute to sinorussian.
While syria has been moscows closest arab ally and the largest recipient of its economic and military aid since 1972, russias influence on syrian policy has been limited. When asked on october 17 th whether syrias next government has to be headed by assad, russian premier dmitry medvedev replied no, absolutely not. The turks have their interests in syria, the iranians have their interests in syria, saudis have their interests in syria, the israelis have their interests in syria, and then you zoom an even bigger step out and it seems like almost every western power in the world is somehow participating in bombing syria or attacking isis in some way. An opportunistic pursuit of national interests in its return the middle east, moscow hopes to revive its own economy and challenge u. The largescale civilian killings perpetrated by assads regime have only reinforced the importance of. The effects of russian intervention in the syria crisis 3 overview in springsummer 2015, russia and iran pursued an initiative for highlevel international talks, aimed at keeping president bashar alassad or at least elements of his regime in place as part of a political transition in syria. In syria, the assad baathist regime rejects the idea. Russias many interests in syria the washington institute. Both the russian federation and the united states have strong interests at stake in syria,and these interests overlap in part, but not completely both the united states and russia seek to ensure a stable and unified syria, though the two countries disagree on how to achieve this. Russia relationship and brought into sharp focus the incompatibility of washingtons interests in syria with those of moscow. Thus, the us should stop pretending that its core interests in syria conflict with russias goals in the region.